EVENING BRIEFING · WEEK 41 · FROM 22 175 EVENTS ·

Carbitrage Evening Briefing — 2026-10-09 20:00 (data through 17:01 UTC)

Snapshot: pulse_20261009_2001.db — 6,921 listings (6,891 active / 30 expired), 22,175 events, span 2026-10-06 → 10-09. Prior briefing: 2026-10-09 08:30.

0. Corrections to this morning's briefing (first)

  1. "NL concat fix confirmed live" — only half true. Last night's cleanup batch (21:00–24:00 UTC) flip-flopped in BOTH directions: 64 NL price events, ~27 with ≥€1M swings, same listings oscillating clean↔glued (Ferrari SF90 374,950↔374,950,101; 296 GTB ×2; RS6; S63). It was a noisy re-parse batch, not a quiet fix. That said: zero NL noise events today and current stored prices are 183/186 sane — so the state is "corrected, quiet since," and none of those "cuts" were market moves.
  2. mobile.de wipe-risk watch (#2 this morning) did NOT materialize. The full cycle was: 578 expired 15:00 UTC yesterday → all 578 REAPPEARED by 17:00 UTC (within this briefing's 24h window), hashes identical, all currently active. EXPIRED events true-24h: only 30 (vs 578 in the wipe hour). DE side grew 641 → 660 through today and held. Risk remains structural, not active.

1. Corridor spreads (top 5 tracked models with both sides)

Landed = median source + transport + plates (mobile.de/as24de +€1,050, as24it +€470). Confidence: high n≥50 · medium 20–49 · low 5–19 · none <5.

Model car.gr med (n) Source med (n) Landed Raw spread Verdict
VW Golf €10,900 (434, high) mobile.de €19,700 (79, med) €20,750 −90.4% FLAG — year mix (gr MY2012/159k km vs de MY2020/79k)
Toyota Yaris €12,500 (139, high) mobile.de €22,490 (33, med) €23,540 −88.3% FLAG — mix (gr MY2016 vs de MY2022 hybrids)
VW Polo €9,999 (119, high) mobile.de €17,999 (27, low) €19,049 −90.5% FLAG — mix; as24de n=6 +0.2% flat
Audi A4 €9,000 (154, high) mobile.de €21,115 (4, none) €22,165 −146.3% FLAG — mix (gr MY2008/197k km vs de MY2018); DE n=4 unusable
Mercedes A class €20,000 (119, high) mobile.de €24,900 (25, low) €25,950 −29.8% FLAG — closest ages yet still mix-skewed; treat as "DE not cheaper"

Secondary-source reads (all low/none n): Golf as24de €10,345 (13, low) landed €11,395 → −4.5% flat; as24it Golf €4,950 (7) landed €5,420 → +50.3% (IT skews oldest, n=7). Yaris as24it €5,500 (3) → +52.2% (n=3, meaningless). Polo as24it €6,900 (4) → +26.3% (n=4). A-class as24de €9,994 (4) → +44.8% and as24it €7,200 (3) → +61.7% — both n<5, ignore.

Every >15% flag tonight is a year-mix artifact, same as 10-08. Raw cross-market medians compare different cars; only band-matched reads count.

Mercedes GLC (flagship, band-matched vs mobile.de landed):

  • 2016-18: +13.5% (n=18/17) · 2017-19: +14.1% (n=28/32) · 2018-20: +23.2% (n=29/36) · 2019-21: +22.7% (n=41/32) · 2020-22: +16.6% (n=42/20)
  • All five bands positive, three >15%. Vs this morning (+15.6/+16.5/+32.2/+30.2/+19.9) the hot bands cooled ~7pp but the signal holds for a third consecutive briefing. DE side n=60 active, stable all day.

2. Movers (true 24h — cutoffs computed in ISO-T against max ts)

  • The market is essentially frozen: 5 meaningful price moves in 24h (194 UPDATED events, 160 trivial <€500, 27 NL batch noise, 5 real). Real moves: car.gr A 160 €11,990→€11,000 (−€990, −8.3%); car.gr Smart #1 €38,900→€37,990 (−€910, −2.3%); car.gr 3008 €20,900→€21,990 (+€1,090); as24de Crossland €13,800→€14,690 (+€890); truckscout24 Citroën C3 (special-purpose) €8,900→€9,900 (+€1,000).
  • Yesterday's mobile.de cuts (E 300d −9.7%, Polo GTI −5.9%, Corsa to €8,500) unchanged — no follow-through in either direction.
  • NEW (true-24h, 1,179): car.gr 268 (Golf +99, A4 +37, Polo +36, A-class +31); as24 clones 573 combined (fr 162, de 147, it 129, es 129, nl 115) — steady clone intake; mobile.de 58 (mostly fresh other, see §4); other 230 — still the single biggest new-stock bucket.
  • REAPPEARED (779): mobile.de 578 = the wipe reversal (see §0.2); as24it 109, es 41, truckscout24 23 — routine window churn.
  • EXPIRED true-24h: 30, all small sources. Nothing reads as a sale.

3. Source health

Source Active Miss price Miss km Miss year Miss fuel Note
car.gr 4,591 0.5% 0.7% 0% 95.2% structural (fuel detail-only); feed ON since 22:32 yday
mobilede 660 0% 0% 0.9% 23.3% stable post-wipe; DE corridors usable today
as24it 273 0% 2.2% 2.9% 7.7% fuel miss improving (was 11.3%)
as24es 228 0.4% 0% 0% 0% 8 active prices ≥€100k — residual concat garbage
as24de 224 0.4% 0% 1.8% 0% clean
as24fr 222 0% 0% 0% 0% 3 more U+202F crashes today (12:55/15:38/22:04), then one "done" run 22:06 — prices still untrustworthy while NEW 162 flowed in
as24nl 186 0% 0% 0% 0% quiet today after last night's batch; 3 residual 200k-1M prices
truckscout24 139 15.8% 7.9% 42.4% 62.6% settling slowly; year miss worsening
cargr_trucks 210 15.2% 20.5% 0% 77.1% unchanged
moto trio 158 0–4% 5–9% 0–15% 4–67% mobilede_moto 1 error + 1 interrupted run today
  • as24fr still crashing on U+202F ('19 500', '2 990') — 3 error runs today; the single "done" run doesn't clear the backlog. FR spread numbers remain garbage-in.
  • es residual concat prices persist (8 listings ≥€100k, e.g. RC F/ SWM-class gluing) outside our tracked models; tracked-model reads clean.
  • listing_specs: 2,082 rows (+11% today); CO2 coverage 163 (was 82) — tax math unblocking at ~1.3%/day of active car.gr stock.
  • Dashboard activity: 8 stars + 1 ignore by dashboard-admin today.

4. Taxonomy debt — top model_key='other' title prefixes (active)

  1. Mercedes… (60) — badge-number classics unmapped: V 250 vans, CLK 200, GL 350, G 290, 560/190/180 oldtimers; biggest single bucket
  2. Special purpose truck (17) — category policy
  3. Club Car (17) — golf carts; exclude
  4. Toyota RAV 4 (7) — mapping gap
  5. Mazda MX… (7) — MX-5 concat?
  6. DS Automobiles DS… (7) — brand-model redundancy
  7. Mitsubishi Space Star (6)
  8. Alfa Romeo Alfa… (6) — redundancy
  9. Isuzu D… (5) — D-Max split?
  10. Volkswagen ID… (5) — ID.x unmapped

→ Kimi Code queue, updated: (a) as24fr U+202F price parser (3 crashes today, still top); (b) es residual concat cleanup (8 poisoned prices); (c) Mercedes badge-number taxonomy (60 actives — vans, CLK, G, GL, oldtimers; biggest win available); (d) RAV4 / MX-5 / Space Star / DS / ID.x / D-Max mappings; (e) Club Car / special-purpose category policy. Note: 'other' gained +230 NEW in 24h — debt growing faster than mappings.

5. Watchlist (ranked)

  1. GLC corridor: +14–23% in every year band (third consecutive briefing), DE side stable (n=60 active, zero exits today). This is the only live, trustworthy spread in the DB. If an evaluation was queued, the data support it tonight; just re-snapshot same-day before committing, per #2.
  2. mobile.de window fragility is structural. Yesterday's 578-listing wipe reversed in ~2h and didn't repeat today — but nothing in config changed. Any DE-side number, GLC included, can halve within hours and return by evening. Decision-grade data needs a fresh snapshot.
  3. as24fr U+202F crash — 3 failures today. FR intake (222 active, 162 NEW/24h) is flowing while its price parser errors out; every FR number is suspect. Also mobilede_moto had an error + an interrupted run — moto corridor just opened, watch it doesn't silently stall.
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